Thursday, October 05, 2023

Trump Won't Be Speaker of the House

 The MAGA weirdos are floating Trump's name, and Trump has signaled back that he is open to it. But while I bet some whack-o-doodles will put in his name (as some did in the last speaker vote), I don't think hw will end up as speaker. Here is why:

  1. It's a real job. Being speaker of the House can be hard work and requires long hours. If Trump took the job it would require him to work more than he ever has in his life. There is no room for four hours of executive time when a CR is down to the wire. I literally don't think Trump is able to do the job.
  2. Trump isn't currently eligible. Rule 26 of the Republican conference's own rules bars anyone in a leadership position who is facing indictments that carry a potential prison sentence of more than two years. Trump is facing 91 indictments with potential of hundreds of years in prison. The rule excluding him is not a statute, it is just a rule passed by the House GOP. They can always change it. But can they change it right now? My understanding is until there is a new speaker, the House can't conduct any business. How can they hold a vote to change the rules right now? They could also just ignore the rule, never rule our Republican lawlessness. But the rule provides a nice cover for GOPer who understand that Trump would be a disaster as speaker. This gives them a plausible reason to vote for someone else, while shrugging their shoulders and telling their MAGA constituents, "sorry, I like Trump too, but the rules..."
  3. Trump really can't handle the job right now. Being speaker of the house while running for president is itself a heavy lift. Duties as speaker can trap the candidate in Washington when they really should be campaigning somewhere else. But in Trump's case, he is also the Defendant in three criminal trials in three different places (DC, FL and GA), and in two civil cases in a fourth place (NY). As I said in #1, the speaker job would require Trump to do more work than he ever has in his life. I can't imagine that Trump can possibly pull that off.
On the other hand, stupider things have happened!