Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Peace plan hot potato

It is interesting to see how Biden is jamming Netanyahu with his peace plan.

It looks like what happened is the broad outline of Biden's plan was floated by Israeli negotiators in one of those secret via mediator peace talks in Egypt or Qatar. I'm not sure how serious the Israelis were about the proposal when they floated it. Maybe they just raised the idea so they could say they had a plan that wasn't slaughtering every single person in Gaza. But the Biden administration grabbed the plan with both hands and started pushing it while publicly referring to it as a peace plan that Israel had already agreed to. The U.S. even got the Security Council to approve it.

The problem is whatever Israel's negotiators may have said privately (and one of Netanyahu's aides confirmed that Israel had proposed it), it's pretty clear that this is not the kind of plan that Netanyahu's far-right government could accept. That has given Hamas a chance to jam Israel too by signaling that it would agree to the plan too. So now it looks like everyone has agreed to this plan in principle, but if it doesn't happen, that is only because Israel won't give final approval. And since the plan would result in the return of all the hostages (including the bodies of dead hostages, if Israel turned down the deal to continue they war, they would be fighting to avoid freedom for the remaining hostages.

Or at least that's the spin. Of course, Hamas' tentative agreement could just be bullshit. Maybe, like Israel, they are just floating theoretical agreement to make them look like the reasonable ones and if Israel ever did officially approve the plan, they would back away from it just as Israel is backing away from it now. But I'm not so sure they are bullshitting about this. And Israel isn't sure either. If they were, then they would approve the deal to jam Hamas.

But Israel won't agree because they are afraid Hamas might actually agree to it if they do. Israel's bottom line is they want the war to continue.