It is great that the hostages are free and the ceasefire seems to be holding. But it is really interesting that people seem to be assuming that the war in Gaza is over. I hope it is, don't get me wrong. I think this is the fourth ceasefire with a hostage release deal there has been since October 7. Because all of the remaining hostages, and corpses of hostages, are being released with this one it will obviously be the last.
But the hard questions: will Israeli forces leave Gaza and what will happen to Hamas are still unresolved. Just like they were in prior ceasefire + hostage release deals. And all three of those prior ceasefires fell apart shortly after the hostage release part ended.
And yes, the plan/ultimatum given to Hamas last week by Trump essentially required Hamas to disarm. But Hamas has not completely agreed to that part, nor has Israel agreed to much about the future of Gaza. The two sides have only agreed to "phase one," the hostage release part that has happened today. But what happens next? Hamas seems to want Israel to withdraw from Gaza, and Israel wants Hamas to disarm and disband. Neither of those terms have been clearly accepted by the other side.
It looks to me like Hamas thinks Israel should withdraw from Gaza. They might agree to some token surrender of weapons without giving up their whole arsenal. And there's no way to measure if the group is "disbanded." They could just rebrand (maybe they could figure out an Arabic acronym that would work for "شدة"). In other words, Hamas might think that this agreement is essentially what it offered Israel in January 2024--releasing all hostages in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal and a permanent ceasefire. Netanyahu rejected that offer back then, so I think Israel expects to remain in at least part of Gaza, replace Hamas with some governing body run by foreigners that Israel has effective authority over, and that it is allowed to continue to take ad hoc military action in the territory, like it does in the West Bank.
Those two positions are mutually incompatible. So there is plenty of reason to expect this to fall apart. The prior ceasefires all did.
And yet, there is one big difference between this time and the other times: The world now expects the war to end. I think that might include majorities of the population in both Israel and Gaza. The Trump Administration definitely expects it to be over. Both sides have a lot to lose if they piss on Trump's victory lap. Those facts are where most of my optimism about the future lies. I do think there's more momentum in world opinion towards a complete end than there has been since the October 7 attacks.
