This is going to be grim (I write that before I cut and paste the list of predictions I posted at the beginning of 2024. I already know that most of what happened this year was not what I expected). But it is finally time to demonstrate just how full of shit I am when I predict stuff:
1. Trump will appear on both the primary ballot and the general election ballot of all 50 states and Washington D.C. in the 2024 elections.
Right. Starting off strong!
2. The current war in Gaza will be "over" in the sense that the year will end with a long-term ceasefire in effect (whether formal or informal), but Hamas will still exist and the humanitarian disaster that is Gaza will still be a humanitarian disaster.
Wrong. I mean that last clause is correct. But the prediction was that the war in Gaza would be over, not about Hamas' existence or the humanitarian disaster.
3. Netanyahu will not be Prime Minister of Israel at the end of 2024.
Sadly wrong.
4. There will be no new peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, or any other Arab nation, in 2024.
Right! The Biden Administration's belief that they could somehow get an Israeli-Saudi peace agreement out of the slaughter in Gaza was delusional.
5. Trump will not just be the GOP nominee for President in 2024, but no other candidate will win a single state, or come closer than being double digits (10%or more) behind him in the primaries or caucuses of every single state.
When I first saw this one I thought it would be right. But then I decided to actual look at the various primary results and there was this. So I'm going to have to rate it wrong.
6. Biden will be reelected President in 2024.
Wrong.
7. None of Trump's criminal cases will go to trial in 2024.
Wrong.
8. There will be at least one more corruption allegation against Justice Thomas and/or Alito in 2024, but it will not result in any real reforms of the Court.
Right! Here's one about Alito and here's one about Thomas. In fact, there were so many Thomas and Alito being bribed accepting gifts by rich people stories in 2024, I feel like I should get this one counted right several times over. And yet, not only was there no reform, there was no serious effort to get enforceable ethics on the justices of our highest court.
10. The war in Ukraine will still be going on, with only minor changes in the territory that Russia and Ukraine control in Ukraine by the end of the year.
I'm going to call this right even though Ukraine grabbed a chunk of Russia (which is slowly being whittled away by Russian and North Korean forces), and Russia seems to be advancing in the Donbas region. Even with those changes, the frontlines are fairly similar to where they were at the end of 2023.
11. The Democrats will lose control of the Senate but gain control of the House in the 2024 elections.
Half right! Or half wrong! Democrats lost the Senate and Republicans maintained control of the House, albeit with an even narrower margin than the super-narrow one they had in the past two years.
12. Mike Johnson will not be speaker of the House at the end of 2024.
Wrong. He might lose his speakership in the next few days, but as of December 31, 2024, he still has that gavel.
13. Trump will pick Vivek Ramaswamy as his running mate.
Wrong! I should have predicted that Trump will pick someone else as his running mate, then ignore him after the election in favor of Elon Musk, with Ramaswamy as Musk's vice-useless billionaire. What a super-predictor I would have been if I had said that!
14. Trump will mangle the name "Ramaswamy" on camera at least once in 2024.
Wrong. Surprisingly, I can't find any sign that this happened. If you can find any examples, let me know.
15. The UK will finally hold a general election in 2024 and the British Prime Minister at the end of the year will not be a Tory.
Right.
16. Ukraine will not hold a presidential election in 2024 because of their national emergency and Zelensky's approval will be lower at the end of 2024 than it was at the end of 2023.
Right on both counts.
17. The U.S. economy will not have a recession in 2024.
Right.
18. The Supreme Court will overrule the "Chevron deference rule" in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo.
Right.
19. The Supreme Court will rule that Trump has no immunity (not even a partial or qualified immunity) from prosecution for anything he did after he ceased being president.
Wrong. I totally blew this one. I guess I still thought that even our corrupt Supreme Court was not that corrupt and detached from the text of the constitution.
20. The head of state in the five Central Asian stans will be the same at the end of 2024 as it today.
Right! I do some version of this most years, going back and forth predicting a change or no change. I'm usually right when I predict no change.
21. Biden's approval according to the 538 polling average will be higher at the end of 2024 than it is currently (as of 12/31/23 it is 39.3%), but his rating will still be underwater (meaning Biden's disapproval number will be higher than his approval number).
I'm going to call this half right. Biden's approval rating is only 37.4%, but he is definitely underwater. Am I being too easy on myself? I mean, Biden being underwater was the easier prediction to get right. Maybe I am being too easy, but this year I need it! I'm still giving myself a half point.
22. Trump will have some kind of health crisis in 2024, but he will not tell the public what it is. So he might just disappear from public view, or check into the hospital without any announcement of what happened (although it is possible some reporters will figure it out).
Wrong. If he had a health crisis, the coverup was so good no one noticed (I'm not counting getting grazed by a bullet on the ear. That's not the kind of thing I was predicting with this one). There was definitely no unaccounted for disappearance from public appearances.
23. 2024 will be the hottest year ever recorded, beating the current hottest year, 2023.
The Tally
I got 12 right and 11 wrong, that's 52.174% right! Holy shit, I can't believe I got more than 50% right. I was sure it would be my worst rate ever, but I beat my success rate in 2015 and 2021!
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%)
2010: (none because Kazakhstan)
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%)
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again)
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%)
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%)
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%)
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%)
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%)
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
2020: 10.5 right to 10.5 wrong (50.000%)
2021: 10 right to 13 wrong (43.478%)
2022: 14 right to 8 wrong (63.636%)
