Wednesday, September 29, 2010

the expectations game

it occurs to me that expectations for GOP gains in the upcoming congressional elections are running really high, maybe unrealistically high. the poll numbers that are forecasting this republican wave are all based on likely voter models that assume a heavier turnout for republican voters because of that "enthusiasm gap."

the enthusiasm gap might be closing. but even if it doesn't close completely and the the democrats lose overall, it's hard for me to imagine the GOP meeting the sky-high expectations they have set up for themselves. they could be setting themselves up for a post-election story of GOP disappointment if their gains are not large.