Wednesday, November 16, 2016


I don't buy this argument. For one thing, reconciliation only works if the CBO projects that the proposed legislation will not increase the deficit after next ten years. There are tricks you can use to get around that (that's why the Bush tax cut had a sunset clause, making it expire one day short of its tenth anniversary), but the bottom line is that most the Republicans' plans, like repealing Obamacare, would increase the deficit. So they won't be able to use it for most of their signature issues.

I do think there is one small chance that the filibuster will survive (but only for legislation. If they keep the filibuster, the Republicans will extend current exception to the filibuster rule for judicial and executive appointments to include prohibiting the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees). That scenario is if a significant number of key Republicans in the Senate are secretly scared of Trump's agenda but are too cowardly to say so in public. Maintaining the filibuster for legislation would be a way to enable the opposition to gum up the works on any really radical changes under the guise of maintaining Senatorial traditions.

It's only a small chance IMHO because I don't see that much secret GOP scaredy cat. But maybe I just don't see them because they are good at being secret.