This map is really amazing.
At first glance it doesn't look all that amazing. I mean, most of the states are in the category I would have guessed. The states where Trump has less than a 40% approval are all of the reliable blue states (the entire West Coast, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, minus Maine and New Hampshire). Virginia being included with those reliable blue states is only surprising if you haven't paid attention to how Virginia has voted in the past 5-10 years.
But look at Texas.
Texas is supposed to be the Republicans' California, a reliably red state with a shitload of electoral votes. Trump is under-40 in Texas, which groups it with all these other really blue states.
People have talked about the purplization of Texas for years. Demographic changes in the state have made its move from a reliably red state towards a blue state inevitable, those people have said. But thus far, there has been little sign of that move in elections. The are no Democrats holding a state-wide elected office in Texas.
Does this mean that blue Texas is finally coming? If the Republicans can't win Texas (unless they get something else), they wouldn't have a path to the Presidency anymore. Without Texas they would have lost in 2000, 2004, and 2016--essentially they would not have been able to get a Republican in the oval office since Poppy Bush 20 years ago.
ADDING: Just after I hit publish, I saw that Matthew Yglesias at Vox noticed the same poll.
ADDING AGAIN (1/31/18): Yglesias tweeted this map, showing how a presidential election would play out if the Democrats only won the lightest green states in the above map (that is, they lost all of the "medium green" states where Trump's approval is between 40 and 49%). Even then, the Democrats would win the presidency by a comfortable 18 electoral vote margin.
At first glance it doesn't look all that amazing. I mean, most of the states are in the category I would have guessed. The states where Trump has less than a 40% approval are all of the reliable blue states (the entire West Coast, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, minus Maine and New Hampshire). Virginia being included with those reliable blue states is only surprising if you haven't paid attention to how Virginia has voted in the past 5-10 years.
But look at Texas.
Texas is supposed to be the Republicans' California, a reliably red state with a shitload of electoral votes. Trump is under-40 in Texas, which groups it with all these other really blue states.
People have talked about the purplization of Texas for years. Demographic changes in the state have made its move from a reliably red state towards a blue state inevitable, those people have said. But thus far, there has been little sign of that move in elections. The are no Democrats holding a state-wide elected office in Texas.
Does this mean that blue Texas is finally coming? If the Republicans can't win Texas (unless they get something else), they wouldn't have a path to the Presidency anymore. Without Texas they would have lost in 2000, 2004, and 2016--essentially they would not have been able to get a Republican in the oval office since Poppy Bush 20 years ago.
ADDING: Just after I hit publish, I saw that Matthew Yglesias at Vox noticed the same poll.
ADDING AGAIN (1/31/18): Yglesias tweeted this map, showing how a presidential election would play out if the Democrats only won the lightest green states in the above map (that is, they lost all of the "medium green" states where Trump's approval is between 40 and 49%). Even then, the Democrats would win the presidency by a comfortable 18 electoral vote margin.
I gave Democrats ever state where Trump’s approval rating is 40 or lower in the latest Gallup poll, the GOP gets the rest.— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) January 30, 2018
Fun map. pic.twitter.com/sMWJn1InMx
