Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Hard Brexit (or Brexiting is Hard)



I still think the most likely outcome is a last-minute agreement between the UK and EU to extend the late-March Brexit deadline, but I think we are down to either that or a hard Brexit as the only remaining possibilities.

I don't think there is enough time to negotiate a new soft Brexit deal and get it ratified, assuming that the EU is even interested in entertaining a new deal. How long would it take to organize from scratch and hold a second Brexit referendum? Could the proposal to hold a second referendum even get through Parliament?

I don't know much about British politics, but I do understand that both negotiations over every aspect of an economy and organizing a national vote take time. There are only 10.5 weeks until March 29, 2019. From my outsider perspective, it looks like an extension or a no-deal exit is all that is left.