I haven't written about Kazakhstan for a while, but this is really fascinating.
Since it became independent, the Kazakhstani government has been trying to coax ethnic Kazakhs who live in other countries to move to Kazakhstan (the "Oralman"). They have been pretty successful. A bunch of my friends from Kazakhstan actually spent their childhood elsewhere (although most of the ones I know personally tend to be from other former soviet republics and not China). In any case, the Oralman resettlement project has meant that a lot of Kazakhstani citizens have relatives in nearby countries. There are 1.8 million Kazakh's in China. It is the country with the second largest number of Kazakhs after Kazakhstan. There is even a Kazakh autonomous prefecture in Northern Xinjiang, China.
News of China's concentration camps for non-Han Muslim in Xinjiang increasingly comes out. The crackdown initially reported as targeting Uighurs, but also clearly is sweeping up Kazakhs. Uighurs are ethnic cousins to Kazakhs and probably would have garnered some sympathy in Kazakhstan. But the news that Kazakhs are also being targeted seems inevitable to stir some real outrage, made worse by the fact that many of those Chinese Kazakhs have relatives who came to KZ as Oralman and are now Kazakhstani citizens.
Kazakhstan likes to portray itself as the defender of the Kazakh people. But China and Kazakhstan generally have good relations, and Kazakhstan depends upon China economically. So the government has been loath to criticize Beijing over its mistreatment of Kazakhs in Western China, even when some of them hold a Kazakhstani passport. While Kazakhstan is more economically dependent on China than China is on Kazakhstan, China's Belt and Road Initiative (arguably China's biggest most ambitious international effort) depends upon Kazakhstan. Most of the overland routes to Europe and the Middle East cross Kazakhstan.
So the government of Kazakhstan doesn't want to press China over its treatment of Kazakhs, but is facing enormous pressure from its citizens and international groups to do so. Meanwhile in the few cases when Kazakhstan has used its influence, China often has done what Kazakhstan wants. China has too much riding on KZ to jeopardize a souring relationship. But those few successful cases puts the Kazakhstani government under even more pressure to take on China. and yet Kazakhstan knows there is some line it cannot cross without risking a serious break with one of its most important trading partners.
I'm convinced that Kazakhstan and and other Muslim countries are much better positioned to get China to change its behavior than the U.S. is (especially under Trump). The Saudis potentially had a lot of juice, but they have already pissed it away. So that leaves Kazakhstan, a country that is not in a terribly good position to make a risky move like that, and whose president who has tried hard to maintain good relations with everyone. But the Kazakh people are angry. President Nazarbayev can't ignore that.
Since it became independent, the Kazakhstani government has been trying to coax ethnic Kazakhs who live in other countries to move to Kazakhstan (the "Oralman"). They have been pretty successful. A bunch of my friends from Kazakhstan actually spent their childhood elsewhere (although most of the ones I know personally tend to be from other former soviet republics and not China). In any case, the Oralman resettlement project has meant that a lot of Kazakhstani citizens have relatives in nearby countries. There are 1.8 million Kazakh's in China. It is the country with the second largest number of Kazakhs after Kazakhstan. There is even a Kazakh autonomous prefecture in Northern Xinjiang, China.
News of China's concentration camps for non-Han Muslim in Xinjiang increasingly comes out. The crackdown initially reported as targeting Uighurs, but also clearly is sweeping up Kazakhs. Uighurs are ethnic cousins to Kazakhs and probably would have garnered some sympathy in Kazakhstan. But the news that Kazakhs are also being targeted seems inevitable to stir some real outrage, made worse by the fact that many of those Chinese Kazakhs have relatives who came to KZ as Oralman and are now Kazakhstani citizens.
Kazakhstan likes to portray itself as the defender of the Kazakh people. But China and Kazakhstan generally have good relations, and Kazakhstan depends upon China economically. So the government has been loath to criticize Beijing over its mistreatment of Kazakhs in Western China, even when some of them hold a Kazakhstani passport. While Kazakhstan is more economically dependent on China than China is on Kazakhstan, China's Belt and Road Initiative (arguably China's biggest most ambitious international effort) depends upon Kazakhstan. Most of the overland routes to Europe and the Middle East cross Kazakhstan.
So the government of Kazakhstan doesn't want to press China over its treatment of Kazakhs, but is facing enormous pressure from its citizens and international groups to do so. Meanwhile in the few cases when Kazakhstan has used its influence, China often has done what Kazakhstan wants. China has too much riding on KZ to jeopardize a souring relationship. But those few successful cases puts the Kazakhstani government under even more pressure to take on China. and yet Kazakhstan knows there is some line it cannot cross without risking a serious break with one of its most important trading partners.
I'm convinced that Kazakhstan and and other Muslim countries are much better positioned to get China to change its behavior than the U.S. is (especially under Trump). The Saudis potentially had a lot of juice, but they have already pissed it away. So that leaves Kazakhstan, a country that is not in a terribly good position to make a risky move like that, and whose president who has tried hard to maintain good relations with everyone. But the Kazakh people are angry. President Nazarbayev can't ignore that.
