Thursday, December 31, 2020

Grading my 2020 Predictions

Now that the longest fucking year ever is finally coming to a close, I need to look back at the archives and see just how clueless I was about where 2020 was going when I posted my 2020 Predictions. By December 31, 2019, there had already been articles about the Chinese government's attempts and early failures to control the novel coronavirus. So surely I picked up on that and was able to foresee this whole dreadful year, right?

Okay, not quite.

In any event, aside from missing the single biggest story of the entire year, how did I do in foreseeing how things would go? Let's review each prediction to see how I did:

 1. Trump will be acquitted on all counts in the Senate after his impeachment trial.

2. No more than one Republican will vote to convict Trump on any count.

Right. Romney was the only Republican to vote guilty, and only on the first count.

3. No new articles of impeachment will be passed by the House in 2020.


4. The Democratic nominee for President will be Joseph Biden. (I really keep going back and forth between him or Buttigieg, and very occasionally although not recently, Warren, but this is where I landed at year's end)

Right. Seems obvious now. But wow, in retrospect it is hard to believe that Buttigieg ever seemed likely.

5. Joe Biden will have at least one possibly serious (also possibly we won't know how serious) medical issue in 2020.

Wrong. I'm not counting the fractured foot as serious.

6. Donald Trump will not debate the Democratic nominee. (I think there is a chance he will show up at a debate if the Democratic nominee is Biden because Biden is so terrible at those things, but zero chance if anyone else in the nominee. And even with Biden the odds are against Trump showing up. So my prediction is there will be no debate with Trump no matter who is the nominee).

Wrong. Biden was the nominee and Trump did skip one debate, which itself is unprecedented since the modern debate tradition began. But that is not good enough to count as right for this prediction.

7. Trump will lose both the popular vote and the electoral vote in the 2020 general election.

8. Trump will not accept the outcome of the election.


9. The Democrats will hold a majority in the House and retake the Senate in the 2020 election.

Half-right. They held the House, but we still don't know about the Senate. Even if Democrats pull off a double victory in the Georgia special elections, they will not win the Senate in 2020, so that other half is wrong.

10. After the 2020 election, the Democrats will have more trifectas than Republicans in the State Houses (currently Democrats have 15 trifectas to Republicans' 21)

Wrong. Democrats still have 15 trifectas but Republicans increased their number to 23. While Biden's victory over Trump was pretty definitive (at least it is if you look at the actual numbers and not the fevered delusions being aired in the right wing media in the past two months), that Democratic victory did not extend down-ballot. There was no Democratic wave and there was probably a net loss.

11. The 2020 election will have the highest turnout in any national election in the past 20 years.

Right. In terms of total number of voters, 2020 was the highest turnout ever.In terms of percentage, it is the highest turnout since 1900. And because Women were not granted the vote in every state until the 19th Amendment passed in 1920, if we counted all the women and non-whites who were excluded in voting turnout percentages in 1900 and in prior elections, 2020 almost certainly had the highest turnout percentage in American history.

Wrong. It really looked like they would do it this year, but over the summer, Israel formally dropped its annexation plan.

13. Trump will issue at least one pardon of at least one of his relatives, one of his current or former attorneys, or current or former employees.

I'm going to count this one as right. In 2020, Trump has pardoned Michael Flynn, George Papadopoulos, Roger Stone, and Paul Manifort, all of whom worked for Trump's campaign (Flynn also worked for the Trump Administration as National Security Advisor). Also, he pardoned someone who is, if not family, than is family adjacent,  Charles Kushner, the father of Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.

14. The unemployment rate will be over 4.5% in November 2020 (the last employment report available before the end of the year). The "current" (November 2019) rate is 3.5%.

Right. I might not have foreseen the pandemic, but I got this effect of it right. The current official rate is 6.7% (which is actually a huge improvement from the 14.7% we hit in April)

15. The UK will Brexit in 2020, although it will not be a "hard" (no-deal) Brexit, but rather Britain will accept some kind of transition deal with the EU.

Right. Technically, the Brexit doesn't take place until midnight as 2020 turns to 2021, but I'm still counting that as 2020.

16. The Hong Kong protests will die down by the end of 2020, although the issues underlying the protests will still be unresolved and the territory will not reintroduce or pass the extradition law that started the protests during 2020.

I'm going to count this as wrong even though the protests arguably did die down. It's just that what actually happened (the pandemic dampening the ability to protest coupled with Beijing exerting more direct control of the territory) was pretty different from what I predicted and the extradition law was passed.

17. General Haftar will take control of Tripoli in Libya before the end of 2020.

Wrong. The GNA held him off.

18. The Maduro government will either lose power in Venezuela or face an armed rebellion.

Wrong. If I look hard enough maybe I could find some armed rebel group, but nothing widespread happened and that is what I had in mind.

19. Another rightwing populist government will gain power in Europe in 2020.

Wrong. At least I'm not aware of any populist rightwing party in power in any European country that wasn't already in power at the beginning of 2020.

20. Single payer/medicare-for-all will be in the Democratic party platform in 2020, although only as a long-term aspiration.

Wrong. The platform hedges the issue a bit saying (pdf)::
Generations of Democrats have been united in the fight for universal health care. We are proud our party welcomes advocates who want to build on and strengthen the Affordable Care Act and those who support a Medicare for All approach; all are critical to ensuring that health care is a human right.
The platform also explicitly endorses adding a public option to the Affordable Care Act, but that is not the same as a single-payer even if lets people opt into a single payer system.

21. There will be at least one major (>5 people killed) terrorist attack by a right-wing extremist in the U.S. during 2020, although the media will (mostly) not refer to it as terrorism.

Wrong. I believe the worst one in 2020 was the "Boogaloo attacks", which killed two and injured three. So it did not meet my threshold for a "major" attack.


I got 10.5 right and 10.5 wrong, exactly 50% success rate, just what a chicken flipping a coin would get on average. So, not too good. I used to be better at this, honest! Check out the record:
2008: 20 right to 4 wrong (83.333%)
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%)
2010: (none because Kazakhstan)
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%)
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again)
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%)
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%)
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%)
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%)
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%)
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
Tune in just a minute or two from when this goes up to see my exciting predictions for 2021!