Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Good news!

According to a Morning Consult/Politico poll conducted at the conclusion of the Senate’s weeklong trial, a majority of Republican voters (54 percent) said they would support Trump in a hypothetical 2024 presidential primary election – matching the share who said the same in late November, before his standing dipped in a survey conducted shortly after the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.
I think this falls into the "bad for the country, good for the Democrats" category.* Assuming he is not dead or too incapacitated to run in 3 years (not a sure thing by any measure), Trump has a real shot at the 2024 Republican nomination. While Trump has a rabid following, he is even more rabidly unpopular. Most of the U.S. blames Trump for the January 6 insurrection and that is going to look even worse as more information about the violent details and Trump's role comes out.

Right now Biden is really popular. I am sure that will fade as the contrast with Trump slips from the forefront. But one sure-fire way to bring the contrast with Trump right back to the forefront is if Trump himself is running. Almost any other Republican would be a much stronger challenger to Biden (or Harris), but Republicans are too firmly nestled in their MAGA bubble to how badly they are served by the cult of Trump.

* I'm not trying to suggest that Democrats winning the Presidency again in 2024 is "bad for the country." But having Trump dominate the news, even as just a candidate, clearly is.