It's that time again! Another year down the tubes. Which means it's time not only to pop that champaign (and who isn't excited for this awful year to be done). It's also time to look at what I predicted at the start of the year to see just how full of shit I was (and probably still am).
Let's get to it!
1. All of Trump's cabinet appointees who are put to a vote in the Senate (both in committee and in the Senate at large) will pass. Some may drop out before they get to a vote (like Gaetz already has) but everyone who it put up for a vote will be confirmed.
Right! I mean, the exclamation point is because I was right, not because I am excited that the Senate is willing to rubber stamp every unqualified rapist and white supremacist (or both! I'm looking at you Hegseth!) who Trump may appoint.
2. Elon Musk will no longer have any role in the Trump Administration (this prediction includes the prediction that either he won't be in charge of DOGE, or that DOGE won't exist by the end of the year)
3. The government will shut down at least once in 2025.
Right, and it was the longest one ever.
4. Mike Johnson will no longer be Speaker of the House at the end of 2025.
Wrong. I'm convinced the secret to Johnson's survival has been that the House Republican caucus simply can't agree on anyone else.
5. Trump will imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods of at least 20%. The tariffs will be broadly on all Chinese goods, with a bunch of exceptions for his friends and contributors.
Exactly right. Trump mucked with the tariff rate for Chinese goods several times over the course of the year. But every new tariff he set on that country kept the basic rate over 20%. And, when the rate was at 145% he gave massive exemptions for the tech industry after the leaders of silicon valley showered him with praise and bribes.
6. The rate of inflation at the end of 2025 will be higher than 4%.
Wrong. Inflation is rising, but the annualized overall inflation rate is currently 2.7%.
7. Trump's inauguration celebration in Washington will include at least one Nazi and/or Neo-Nazi incident (meaning a pro-Nazi demonstration or Nazi-violence or property defacement or damage).
I'm going to call this one right because of the Musk Nazi salute.
8. Either Clarence Thomas or Sam Alito will announce their retirement (probably pending confirmation of a successor) in 2025.
Wrong.
9. The federal debt ceiling will be abolished in 2025.
Wrong.
10. Elon Musk will no longer be the world's richest person by the end of 2025.
Wrong. In fact he got richer this year. I think I made this prediction assuming that Musk's association with Trump would tank his reputation and damage the brands of his various businesses. On that front I think I was right, but I didn't account for how much Musk was able to award himself government contracts and strong-arm states to allow him to give himself absurdly inflated compensation packages.
11. Donald Trump will either die or have a major health crisis (meaning a hospitalization and at least a temporary incapacitation) in 2025.
There were a few mysterious disappearances from public view for a handful of days, but I was predicting something bigger and more obvious than that. So this one counts as wrong.
12. Trump will issue an executive order to conduct mass deportations which will trigger lawsuits, family separations, and mass incarceration of migrants.
There's no question this one is right.
13. Trump will reduce the refugee cap to zero in 2025.
Wrong. He did not make it zero. I must admit, it never occurred to me that Trump would restrict the U.S. refugee program to white South Africans who do not meet the legal definition of a refugee.
14. Congress will pass a bill that will either extend the Trump tax cuts originally passed in 2017 so that their expiration does not occur until after Trump's current presidential term, or make them permanent.
Right.
15. The filibuster for legislation will be abolished in 2025.
Wrong. Trump wanted to, but this is one of the very few things that the Senate said no to him about.
16. There will be some negotiated cease fire in Ukraine that effectively freezes the front lines but doesn't really resolve the conflict (meaning Ukraine won't agree to give up any territory permanently and Russia won't agree to alter any of its territorial claims over Ukraine) There will be at least one ceasefire violation after it is negotiated. (Actually, there will probably be several but at this point I'm going with "at least one")
I'm going to call this one wrong, although I think it is pretty close to what happened. There was no formal ceasefire that was honored by both sides this year though, so I can't spin this as correct.
17. The War in Gaza will be "over" in the sense that Israel will claim that something like an end to major military operations in the strip and all the hostages will be released or deemed dead. But Hamas will still exist, Israel will continue to kill people in the Gaza strip, and there will be no serious effort to rebuild the region.
Another one that is a little fuzzy around the edges, but I will call this one right. The Gaza War is now widely referred to as over, the surviving hostages have been released, Hamas still exists, Israel is still killing people in Gaza, and while there is talk about rebuilding Gaza, nothing has happened yet.
18. The U.S. will institute some kind of sanctions against the International Criminal Court to retaliate against its criminal investigation and charges of Israeli officials because of their actions in Gaza.
19. The civil war in Sudan will still be raging at the end of 2025 even though there will rarely be any stories about it in the U.S. news media.
I'm going to call this right even though the fall of el-Fasher and the subsequent slaughter broke though the media bubble a little bit.
20. The Syrian provisional government that took over since Assad fled the country will still be in control of Damascus and nominally, at least, the rest of Syria. No major civil war will break out in 2025, although the regime will still be fragile and its future will still be in question.
Right.
21. The five former Soviet Stans (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic--not really a stan anymore even though most people still call it "Kyrgyzstan") will not have any change in their head of state in 2025.
Right.
22. Trump's approval in the 538 favorability average model will be underwater (meaning higher disapproval than approval) throughout 2025.
Okay, so I did not foresee that ABC would kill the 538 site. But the 538 model basically lives on at Nate Silver's web site. So using that, my prediction was wrong. If you scroll down to the chart on that page, Trump's approval was overwater (his approval was higher than his disapproval) for about 2 months at the beginning of his presidency, before dropping underwater, where it will probably stay from now on.
23. Congress will pass some kind of legislation that requires the federal government to buy cryptocurrency in 2025.
Wrong. Trump has signed executive orders to create a "strategic reserve" for cryptocurrency (which would require the federal government to buy a ton of scamcoins), but no legislation has passed.
24. While there may be an effort to cut Social Security or Medicare in 2025, no such cuts will pass Congress.
I'm going to call this one wrong. Trump's "Big Bill" which is the only major legislation that Trump got through Congress, effectively cuts Medicare by removing some of the funding streams for the Medicare Trust Fund which amounts to a $500 billion cut to the program over the 8 year period between 2026 and 2034.
Tally Time!
I got 12 right and 12 wrong, fifty-fifty! I have never gotten exactly half right (and wrong) before. My problem this year was failing to anticipate how much worse Trump would be this year.
I got 12 right and 12 wrong, fifty-fifty! I have never gotten exactly half right (and wrong) before. My problem this year was failing to anticipate how much worse Trump would be this year.
Here is how I did on every prior year since I started doing this:
2008: 20 right to 4 wrong (83.333%)
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%)
2010: (none because Kazakhstan)
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%)
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again)
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%)
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%)
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%)
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%)
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%)
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
2020: 10.5 right to 10.5 wrong (50.000%)
2021: 10 right to 13 wrong (43.478%)
2022: 14 right to 8 wrong (63.636%)
2009: 14.5 right to 7.5 wrong. (65.909%)
2010: (none because Kazakhstan)
2011: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong (70.455%)
2012: 15.5 right to 6.5 wrong again (70.455% again)
2013: 15.5 right to 9.5 wrong (62.000%)
2014: 17 right to 9 wrong (65.385%)
2015: 11.5 right to 13.5 wrong (46.000%)
2016: 17.5 right to 9.5 wrong (64.815%)
2017: 18 right to 8 wrong (69.923%)
2018: 14.5 right to 11.5 wrong (55.769%)
2019: 15.5 right to 11.5 wrong (57.407%)
2020: 10.5 right to 10.5 wrong (50.000%)
2021: 10 right to 13 wrong (43.478%)
2022: 14 right to 8 wrong (63.636%)
2023: 17 right to 6 wrong (73.913%)
2024: 12 right to 11 wrong (52.175%)
Will I do any better in 2026? If you're reading this post when it first appeared, wait 2 minutes and reload the page to see my predictions for that year.
